Douglas Carswell

24 FEB 2017

The EU has much bigger problems than Brexit

And so it goes on. The Euro crisis looms larger than ever. Six years since Greece hit trouble, financial contagion is still spreading. Britain can't leave this unfolding disaster soon enough.

As Ambrose Evans-Pritchard highlighted in yesterday's Telegraph, the Eurozone is set for its biggest crisis yet. The Target 2 payments system has facilitated a huge socialisation of debt.

Debtors in southern states (especially Italian banks) now owe northern bloc central banks, via the ECB, hundreds of billions of dollars – money that they won't be able to repay. If – or rather when – they default, the aftermath will engulf the entire Eurozone.

The debt crisis happens in the context of a banking system that is already dangerously fragile, even in Germany and France.

Research published by the UKIP Parliamentary Resource Unit in 2015 found that major European banks were still dangerously undercapitalised, in spite of post-financial crisis banking reforms. The weakest of all was Deutsche Bank.

Then there's the politics. Depending on elections this year and next, both France and Italy could attempt to leave the Eurozone. Either scenario would amount to a huge debt default.

Many British commentators look at Brexit as if it's happening in a vacuum. They seem to assume we're leaving a successful economic project that will sail serenely on.

That's clearly not the reality. We're leaving a failed political project that is heading for economic catastrophe – possibly, as Allister Heath suggests, even before Brexit negotiations are completed in 2019.

The EU is collapsing under its own weight. The sooner we're out, the better.


23 FEB 2017

Who will save the liberal order?

Do you support Donald Trump, or side with the anti-Trump protesters? Are you persuaded that Theresa May is doing great, or convinced Comrade Corbyn is the answer?

Look at how polarised politics is becoming. It's supposed to be about deciding which box to mark on the ballot paper. Instead, it is increasingly all-encompassing. People are coming to be defined by their political allegiance.

But is that constructive?

There is a real divide in politics. On one side are the New Radicals – e.g. Trump, Five Star, Syriza. On the other are those who might loosely be called the liberal elite.

Yet the truth is that neither is a particularly compelling proposition. The critics of the New Radicals have a point. But so do those who are fed up with the established ruling class. There really is a political and economic oligarchy emerging in most Western states.

Is this a new phenomenon though? Maybe there have been other instances in history where elites have concentrated power, and provoked an insurgency in response. Perhaps it's worth thinking now about what kind of fightback worked – and what didn't.

If we want to preserve the liberal order that has been the norm in the West since the end of the Second World War – and expanding to the rest of the world since the fall of Communism – then self-styled liberals may need to ask themselves whether they are really true to liberalism.

These are some of the themes I explore in my forthcoming book.


22 FEB 2017

Paris is no match for London

French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron says he wants London's talent to move to Paris post-Brexit. A decade ago, Nicolas Sarkozy made a similar pitch to French citizens in Britain. There's a reason they stayed here.

France isn't exactly in great shape economically. The unemployment rate in France right now is 10%, compared to 5% here. That figure rises to 26% among young people, as opposed to 12% in Britain.

Which is why many have left France to work here. Estimates suggest London is home to as many as 300,000 French citizens – and has been for years. It's no coincidence that Sarkozy campaigned here in 2007. France's loss of so many able people is our gain.

Britain has higher employment partly because our labour market is much more flexible. In France, not only is the working week legally limited to 35 hours, but it can also be impossible for employers to dismiss underperforming staff.

Increased protection for workers is great – if you already have a job, that is. Not if you don't. Because it's so hard to get rid of staff, employers are reluctant to hire them in the first place.

Brexit doesn't change the fact that the cost of employing people in France and elsewhere in the EU is often prohibitive. Far from relocating, as Macron might hope, British banks are already identifying Brexit opportunities.

Not for the first time, business is months ahead of politics.

But there's a more important point here.

Economic prosperity comes from flexibility. To thrive, economies need to adapt to changing conditions. Static economies decline.

Brexit allows our economy to become more dynamic – because we'll no longer be subject to single market overregulation. That's why economically – not just politically – we made the right choice on June 23rd.


21 FEB 2017

Peers are playing with fire

The unelected oligarchy in the House of Lords could vote to amend the Article 50 Bill today. They don't seem to recognise how self-defeating that would be.

Some peers – Lord Mandelson, for example – think they can get away with obstructing the referendum result. That attitude betrays an incredible lack of self-awareness.

The most the upper house could do is delay Brexit, not block it. But if peers do decide to dig their heels in, they risk triggering a constitutional crisis that they will definitely lose.

The House of Lords did just that a century ago. Peers thought they could block David Lloyd George's "People's Budget". Instead, not only did the budget pass, but the Lords ended up losing their power of veto.

"Surely, peers today can't be quite that tone deaf", you might think.

Really?

The upper house may no longer be made up of hereditaries. But it is no more representative for being stuffed with ex-MPs, donors, and party placemen instead.

Today's House of Lords is an excellent cross-section of the House of Commons ten years ago. It is almost designed to be outdated.

There is widespread consensus that the House of Lords is long overdue for radical reform. Peers could start that process today.


20 FEB 2017

All the President's pundits

Media types seem to be perpetually outraged at President Trump's comments about the press. If they want to rebuild public trust in journalism, they are going the wrong way about it.

Reporters called the President's press conference last week "extraordinary". But was it? He has been criticising the media consistently for almost two years. It's part of what won him the election.

Trump's attacks on the media resonate with voters in middle America because they have long since lost faith in the press. Rightly so.

The leftist bias of mainstream American news outlets, like CNN and NBC, is pervasive – much like it is at the BBC. Yet, just like the BBC, they refuse to acknowledge it.

You would think growing public dissatisfaction with the press would prompt some humility and reflection. Instead, it appears to have the opposite effect.

Journalists now seem to think of themselves as great heroes of the Trump "resistance". The greater his criticism of them, the more sanctimonious and self-congratulatory they become.

Apparently, pundits still don't get that they are merely justifying his message in the eyes of voters. They aren't hindering the President. They're helping him.

The remarkable thing about President Trump isn't that he attacks hostile media. It's that he has managed to harness them. He has made them his useful idiots.

Throughout the campaign, Trump got billions of dollars of free publicity thanks to news outlets broadcasting his every critical tweet. He has created a kind of feedback loop: the more he attacks the press, the more hysterical they become, the more support he wins.

There's a big gap in the market for reasoned, dispassionate, insightful analysis about what's going on in Washington. If mainstream journalists weren't so preoccupied by their own wounded pride, some of them might seize it.


17 FEB 2017

Europe needs to recommit to NATO

NATO is supposed to be a partnership. Yet, for too long, European countries – including Britain – have effectively subcontracted their defence to the United States. That has to change.

We may be one of the few countries in NATO to spend anywhere near 2% of our GDP on defence. But it's a close-run thing. Numerous reports suggest that the MoD relies on some pretty creative accounting to meet the commitment.

Besides, 2% isn't a target. It's the bare minimum. Given that defence is one of the government's most basic responsibilities, you wouldn't think it would be something to skimp on.

Spending, of course, can be a bad metric. Much of the defence budget is wasted on overpriced equipment that doesn't work, delivered by a price-gouging contractor cartel that ministers and mandarins often seem only too happy to subsidise.

But there's a deeper issue here. Since the beginning of the Cold War, we in Europe have come to expect America to defend us. Consequently, our governments haven't taken defence seriously.

Now the danger of that complacency is becoming clear. Americans have come to resent supporting Europe's defence when Europe is not prepared to defend itself.

What's lacking is the right political will. Some European governments have gone to great lengths in the attempt to save the Eurozone. Imagine if they put the same effort into saving NATO.

Our safety doesn't come free. European governments may need to rethink their priorities.


16 FEB 2017

How to cut the cost of living

A third of British households now live on inadequate incomes, according to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation. To increase prosperity, it's not enough to raise wages. We need to scrap the policies that are pushing up the cost of living.

Unemployment is exceptionally low in the UK. That's the upside. The downside is that high employment has been achieved through wage compression.

Downward pressure on wages is partly the result of the free movement of cheap labour from Eastern Europe. But that's not the only reason.

The government is also subsidising low pay – through tax credits. Employers are incentivised to keep wages low, knowing taxpayers will top them up. In-work benefits are also an added incentive for immigration.

But low pay isn't a stand-alone problem. Wage stagnation is an issue because the cost of living is high and keeps rising. For that, government bears much greater responsibility.

Regressive taxes – VAT, 'green' levies, duties on fuel, alcohol and tobacco etc. – place the greatest burden on the least wealthy households. According to official statistics, the poorest fifth of households spend an average of 30% of their disposable income just on indirect taxes.

The poorest are also hit hardest by monetary policy. Decades of low interest rates have not just raised prices that would otherwise have fallen, but also stoked a housing bubble – transferring wealth from the asset-poor to the asset-rich in the process.

Letting people keep more of their own money, and not debasing its value through constant monetary expansion, would raise the welfare of the poorest at a stroke.

The answer isn't more state intervention. It's less.


15 FEB 2017

The left's problem is pessimism

Across the West, the left is losing. Badly. But that's not, as leftists seem to think, because the world has suddenly become reactionary. It's because the left has lost its own belief in progress.

Last week, Nick Clegg claimed UKIP exists as 'a voice for people who don't like the modern world'. He couldn't be more wrong.

It's not right that is stuck in the past today. It's the left.

The Lib Dems cling onto the mid-twentieth-century dirigisme of the EU. Labour can't see beyond 70s-era socialism. As for the Greens, they hark back to a mythical pre-industrial paradise.

Leftists are often described as progressives or liberals. But they have ceased to be either. They won't admit that the world is getting better, let alone that freedom is the root of progress.

Fundamentally, the left can't accept the idea of a self-organising society. That's why they are always trying to fix things by grand design – and why they place so much faith in 'expert' elites.

Yet elitism is what voters are rebelling against. Most people recognise that they can run their lives better than a remote bureaucrat can. They are turning to the right to take back control.

Progressive politics should be about defeating oligarchy. It should aim to spread power outwards and downwards. My new book – Rebel ­– sets out a manifesto for freeing liberal democracy from the crony cartels.

Meanwhile, the backward-looking left is on the side of the oligarchs. No wonder they're losing.


14 FEB 2017

We need to look beyond comprehensive education

MPs on the Education Select Committee claim that the government hasn't presented enough evidence for new grammar schools. But how much evidence is there for keeping the comprehensive system?

Comprehensive education was never based on evidence. It was about ideology.

Marxist educational theorists backed one-size-fits-all schools because they refused to accept the reality of natural differences in ability. All differences in ability, they maintained, were about class.

Which is why, when comprehensives were first set up, they didn't stream by ability.

Now, of course, they do – because one-size-fits-all education doesn't work in practice. Why would it? The idea of natural equality is absurd.

The reality is that people are diverse. So the education system should reflect that.

Opening new grammar schools should be part of a wider effort to diversify the system.

Schools should be able to decide what and whom they teach – with no national curriculum.

Parents should have the right to control their share of the education budget and send their children to whatever school they choose – not a school determined by postcode lottery.

Unfortunately, any change to the current system – however minor – is opposed by vested interests in the teaching unions and academia, many of whom are still wedded to the bogus theories of the past. Our education system is hamstrung by producer capture.

The overriding aim of school reform should be to face down the education establishment and free up the system. That's what MPs should be pushing for.


13 FEB 2017

Don't jeopardise Brexit with Commons chaos

Parliament has some big Brexit battles ahead. We need to win them. So Brexiteer MPs should base everything they do in the Commons on a simple litmus test: does it benefit Brexit, or not? That's my perspective on the latest effort to unseat the Speaker – and why I won't support it.

There's no doubt John Bercow's attempt to stop President Trump speaking in Parliament is wrong. It's an absurd overreach. It's student politics.

It's also an appalling double standard. Last year, Parliament invited the Chinese President to speak. He is not democratically elected. His government restricts freedom, imprisons dissidents, and routinely abuses human rights.

Yet MPs politely listened to him speak, and had tea with him afterwards. Indeed, the Speaker was only too happy to host him.

In fact, Parliament has welcomed numerous illiberal despots and tin-pot tyrants over the years.

So blocking the elected President of our closest ally – the leader of the free world – is worse than mere virtue signalling. It's morally perverse.

But that doesn't make another Tory challenge to Bercow a good idea. Because the one thing we don't need now is Commons chaos.

Parliament has serious votes on the Great Repeal Bill ahead. Majorities could be tight. Remainer MPs will continue to frustrate the referendum result.

Brexiteers should be exclusively focused on winning those fights – not picking others. Nothing else matters.

President Trump should absolutely be invited to address Parliament.

The Speaker needs to stop posturing, swallow his pride, and roll out the red carpet.

But I won't join the charge to depose him. There are much more important battles to fight.


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