Douglas Carswell

22 SEP 2016

Brexit pessimism is based on dogma, not data

The OECD has backtracked on its prediction of a post-referendum UK slowdown in 2016 – revising its growth forecast up. The ONS says there is no evidence that the vote has had a major effect on the economy. Does this mean Project Fear is finally over? Don't get your hopes up.

The economic data since the referendum has been remarkably positive. Exports, employment, and markets are up. Deficits – both trade and budgetary – are down.

But the doomsayers haven't given up yet. Maybe growth won't slow this year, but it will next year, the OECD now claims. The economy will stall without more monetary stimulus, says the Bank of England.

It's not clear what hypothetical piece of information could convince them that their predictions are wrong.

People in major financial institutions are employed to draw sound conclusions from data. Instead they seem to interpret the data to fit their predetermined conclusions.

Too often, what is sold to us as informed analysis is really a reflection of groupthink and dogma. That's why – from the launch of the euro to the financial crisis to the referendum – global economic forecasters have been so wrong so often.

Instead of trying to prophesy the future, maybe they should look at the past. Nothing in the EU's recent history suggests it's found the elixir for economic success. Where are Europe's Apples, Googles, and Facebooks? Where's the growth? Where are the jobs?

The reason so many of us are confident Brexit will make Britain better off is that the EU is fundamentally broken.

Are the 'experts' so detached from reality that they can't see that?

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