Douglas Carswell

07 JUL 2016

Credit - not Brexit - is the economic threat

Project Fear has predictably proved overblown. Yes, sterling has fallen against the dollar. But the FTSE 100 is now over 3% higher than it was before the vote. UK gilt yields have hit new lows. Investors aren't deserting Britain.

Across the Channel, though, it's a different story. The CAC 40 – France's top share index – is down over 7% since June 23rd. So is Germany's Dax 30. Italy's FTSE MIB has fallen 14%.

More worrying is what's happening to Europe's financial sector. Italy is facing a full-blown banking crisis. Deutschebank's share price has been in freefall for almost a year.

Corporate elites have been quick to blame British voters. But why should Brexit affect Eurozone banks and markets more than British ones? It's not a credible argument.

The truth is there are systemic problems with the global banking system. We didn't suddenly create them two weeks ago.

The real source of instability is something I've been writing about for years: dangerously loose monetary policy.

Ever since the Greenspan Put in the 1980s, central banks the world over have been flooding economies with cheap credit. The aim has always been to prevent economic slowdown. The result has always been the opposite.

By manipulating the price of capital, the real value of assets was obscured. Stock and property markets became bubbles. The world's biggest banks ended up overleveraged, overexposed, and ultimately insolvent – as we found out in 2008.

Policymakers assure us the banking system has been fixed. In reality, nothing has changed. Six months ago, UKIP in Parliament published a policy paper predicting another European banking collapse. Now we've been proved right.

Brexit isn't to blame for the failure of global finance. Monetary policy is. Another financial crisis is inevitable. This time, let's get the cause right.

Back to all posts


The End of Politics and the Birth of iDemocracy

"A revolutionary text ... right up there with the Communist manifesto" - Dominic Lawson, Sunday Times

Printed by Douglas Carswell of 61 Station Road, Clacton-on-Sea, Essex