Douglas Carswell's Blog

In, Out, Shake it all about ....

Paul Goodman writes about the growing momentum for an In / Out EU referendum over on ConHome.

Any referendum on “renegotiation would probably be won”, he asserts, but an “In / Out poll would probably be lost”.  I’ve not seen any evidence to support that claim – and Paul does not provide any.

Perhaps, like many in Westminster, he just sort of feels that an In / Out vote is a bit too much.  I am not so sure. 

First of all, I doubt it really matters if the referendum is a choice between a “new deal” / the status quo, or the status quo / out. The political class might agonise about such things, but any referendum on the EU will very quickly boil down to a case of In or Out. 

However much SW1 people might try to make it about what kind of EU membership we have, I suspect the people will vote on the question of whether we retain membership at all.  Try to imagine a few minutes of debate during any future referendum campaign; BBC-type interviewer: “So, what you are really saying is that we should leave the EU?”. Yep.

Paul seems opposed to an In / Out poll on the basis that it would split the Conservative party. Europe has managed to divide the Conservative party for years without there being a referendum.

I rather imagine that a referendum – as with the poll on AV – might allow divisions to heal.  If we agree to let the people decide, we can also agree to abide by the outcome. (Incidentally, Europe has only caused divisions in the party for years because the upper echelons of the party have got it wrong for about Europe for years. Get it right and those divisions disappear). 

Surely we should not be trying to work out what sort of referendum is likely to yield what sort of result – and then working backwards from that?  Instead, we should ask is it right in principle that the people should have their say.

Sometimes you just have to trust the people.  After leaving Europe policy to ministers and mandarins for 40 years, it is time to let the people have their say on all that has been done in their name.

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