Douglas Carswell

Swing voters? Marginal seat? More Eurosceptic

The smaller their majority, the more Eurosceptic a Conservative MP is likely to be.

Contrary to media myth, those demanding the Prime Minister take a tough line on Europe are not backwoods men from "safe seats". They are disproportionately those MPs from the marginals.

It is a statement of fact, not opinion. The size of the average Conservative MP's majority is, according to my calculation, 9,471. Yet the average majority to those 81 Tory MPs who voted for an In/Out referendum (before it became party policy) is a mere 8,276.

If you look at some of the other key Eurosceptic votes, the trend is repeated pretty consistently. Eurosceptics on the Conservative benches tend to come from more marginal seats.

Why might this be?

Perhaps those MPs in more marginal seats tend to be younger, and more likely to reflect the mood of Euroscepticism of the younger generation?

More likely, I suspect is that MPs in more marginal seats are more receptive to the views of the public. And the public is increasingly Eurosceptic. Which is how democracy is suppose to work, if you think about it.

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