Douglas Carswell

18 AUG 2016

We can trust the experts - to get it wrong

Unemployment will rocket if we vote Leave, they said. Instead, it's fallen. Time and again, the economic data since the referendum has proved the 'expert' predictions wrong.

Here's a reminder of their perfect record of failure:

  • Referendum uncertainty will slow economic growth in the second quarter, the Bank of England told us. In reality, the growth rate rose.
  • Markets will reassess the UK's prospects after a vote to Leave, said the Treasury. The FTSE 100 is close to its all-time record.
  • Britain's economy will suffer a post-referendum recession, Berenberg confidently predicted in the spring. Actually, there won't, admit Berenberg now.
  • Foreign direct investment will fall, warned the IFS. Which must be why Japan's Softbank is putting £24 billion into ARM.
  • No one will want to make trade deals with post-Brexit Britain, sneered the OECD. Except China, India, the US, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, Switzerland, South Korea, Japan, Mexico, Iceland... Have I missed any?
  • There'll have to be an emergency budget, threatened George Osborne. Not a chance, we were assured – by his replacement.
  • Farming will collapse, Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones seriously suggested. The government has already guaranteed to match CAP funding.

At this point, any logical person would be surprised if the so-called 'experts' got something right. Yet the mainstream – or should that be the Remainstream? – media is still shocked by every failed prediction. No amount of reality can shake their faith in their failed oracles.

'Independent' pundits and 'experts' seem to be stuck in their Brexit bunker. Maybe someone could tell them it's safe to come out.

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